Obama has Momentum: McCain on the defensive

FOOTBALL METAPHOR BEFORE THE DEBATE:

Obama has a 17-point lead early in the third quarter. His team has the momentum and the ball deep in McCain's territory. The democrat is poised to add another touchdown to his lead unless McCain can use his town-hall, goal-line defense to change the game around and get control of the ball.

McCain has been called for some dirty plays by the refs and the fans booed. He has home field advantage tonight but has to watch his aggressive style of play or he could easily be called for unsportsmanlike conduct which would all but guarantee another Obama score.

This deep in McCain territory, even a successful goal-line stand will likely leave Obama with at least a field-goal.

TRANSLATION FOR NON-FOOTBALL FANS:

As my previous post mentioned, all of the trends look good for Obama . Time is in his favor and McCain is in jeopardy of loosing even major states that George Bush carried in the last two elections. And recent trends seem likely to put the election almost completely out of reach unless something significant changes for McCain very soon. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico (all of which seems close to a certainty) then the rest of the election will be fought in McCain's territory, so to speak and McCain will be on defense for the rest of the election.

Unless McCain clearly wins tonight's debate, Obama will move further into the lead. If Obama is seen to essentially tie the debate with McCain, Obama will add the equivalent of a field-goal giving him a (football metaphorical) 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter. But if Obama wins tonight, he scores a touchdown and moves into a commanding 24-point lead. Of course, even with a 24 point lead, a team can make big mistakes and still loose the game.

McCain's best hope is to stop Obama's momentum and force a turnover ( AKA force Obama to make a major mistake in the debate ) which could shift the polls in a positive direction for McCain. But McCain is very far behind and time is running out.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008 1:45 PM Pacific Daylight Time