Football analogy for the night before the election:
Obama is leading by 28 points with less than a minute to go . McCain's only hope of victory is that everyone in the stands is blind drunk and has read the scoreboard wrong.
IF YOU ARE STILL WORRIED:
If you are an Obama fan and are still worried (and you know who you are) here is a very simple and compelling argument to calm your nerves:
The website Real Clear Politics shows 11 national polls with Obama leading McCain. NONE OF THESE POLLS SHOW A LEAD FOR JOHN McCAIN. 8 out of the 11 show Obama with 51% or more of the vote. 2 show Obama with 50% of the vote. Only one out of the 11 shows Obama at less than 50%. But even if you take that one poll--the one that has the worst numbers for Obama--and make a further worst-case assumption that McCain wins two out of every three remaining undecided voters, Obama will still end up with more than 50% of the vote.
Think about this for just a moment: under the most optimistic assumptions possible ( and unlikely ones at that ) Obama is still nearly certain of winning a majority of the popular vote.
Still worried? Then look at the electoral college. Obama is a lock to win all of the states Al Gore carried in 2000 comprising 264 electoral votes. To win Obama needs only to carry Virginia or Colorado, both states he has been leading in virtually every poll for over a month. That is, Obama wins even without Florida and even without Ohio. ( You can verify this scenario here. )
Still not convinced? Karl Rove has come out projecting a large win for Obama--he projects Obama will win Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida and Ohio. It hardly needs mentioning that Karl Rove is not a Obama supporter.
COULD ALL OF THE POLLS BE WRONG?
McCain has two possible chances to win:
1. All of the polls are wrong, and all the same way
2. We are all asleep and dreaming the same thing
Of the two possibilities, I have to say that #1 is a bit more likely. But that isn't saying much. The statistical sampling that underlies modern polling is still a bit of an art, but it is extremely unlikely that all of the polls are wrong and essentially all the same way over such a long period of time. Collectively, I would bet that they are right.
DID YOU SAY, BET?
There are people who put their money on the line in predicting the election. Because they stand to win money only if they are right, they have a strong motivation against wishful thinking of any kind. And what do they predict? A sweeping Obama victory.
IT's NOT OVER 'TILL IT's OVER
That's right. And no matter what, this election will make history. Until it is, get plenty of rest, take vitamin C, and drink lots of liquids. That's good advice for any occasion.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Smooth Execution Gives Obama a Commanding Lead
FOOTBALL METAPHOR FOR AFTER THE DEBATE
Obama opens up a 24 point lead late in the third quarter.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN 24 POINTS?
National polls only show Obama leading by single digits. So why do I say that he has such a big lead over John McCain?
The answer is in the electoral college, the recent trends, and the time remaining until the election. All of the major states that McCain might have been able to win back to the republican side that went for John Kerry have strongly moved towards Barack Obama. Even Karl Rove shows Obama in the lead in the electoral college. Obama is showing leads in states like Virginia and North Carolina that no democratic presidential candidate has won in recent memory. Add to that Obama's growing lead in Ohio and Florida--both states the McCain absolutely has to win--and it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine any circumstance that would bring about a McCain victory.
THE DEBATE: WHAT DIDN'T HAPPEN
McCain needed a big play, something to change the momentum of the race and it didn't happen. All of the analysts agree on this point. With just four weeks until the election, the trends are now likely to continue to trend even more strongly towards Obama. Failing some drastic mistake by the Obama campaign or some miraculous accomplishment by the McCain team, this election is over.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
Since I have now made such a strong assertion that Obama is likely to win, I am going to consider various ways I could be mistaken.
THE CLEVELAND BROWS FACTOR
As I mentioned in my first post, I grew up watching the Cleveland Browns loose games even when they were well ahead going into the fourth quarter. This game--this election--could still be lost by Obama. But even the Cleveland Browns would have a difficult time loosing a game ahead by 24 points late in the third quarter if they had been playing as well as the Obama campaign has been executing.
OK, that is really a stretch of the football metaphor, but it is a point worth noting: the Obama campaign is a very disciplined one and has increasingly run an essentially error-free campaign recently. There is no good reason to assume that they are going to start making big mistakes now.
Organizations tend to mimic their founders and if one thing we have learned about Obama is that he is always calm and cool-headed. He has even been compared ( if unfavorably ) with an ice-cube. In stress, we are told, we become more like ourselves, and this suggests that the Obama campaign is likely to become even more disciplined and focused as election day approaches.
McCain, on the other hand, was a fighter-pilot and a gambler (literally--he likes high-stakes craps ). He seems to view leadership as requiring immediate, direct, hands-on action and if something isn't working right now, you need to try something else. With time running out, the McCain campaign is more likely to take big risks and make big mistakes. And, to stretch the football metaphor past the breaking point, the McCain/Stabler offense is just not executing and the Obama/Shula-zone defense isn't letting anything through.
THE I'M JUST PLAIN WRONG FACTOR
I could be wrong. I could be reading the debate results wrong ( even though I am going off the analysis of others on CNN and MSNBC and polls they have done). The voters, en masse, may have seen an entirely different debate than the one that I thought I saw.
Or I could be seeing trends that really aren't there, or wrong about their direction. All these seem to be possibilities but I judge the far, far more likely possibility is that the trends are what they seem to me to be.
THE POLLS COULD BE WRONG
Much of my analysis is based upon various polls. They could all be wrong. The polls were wrong in 2004 in predicting the election outcome. Why not now?
In 2004 there were conflicting polls and trends. This time almost all of the polls and all of the trends are moving in the same direction. With the exception of my pithy, incredibly clever football metaphors, everything I have written is essentially a condensed version of other analyses and simple extrapolations from electoral college maps.
THE RACE FACTOR
Some have argued that the polls may be wrong because of Obama's race--that many people are saying they will vote for Obama but actually will not because they are unwilling to admit to the pollsters (or perhaps even themselves) that they will not vote for a black candidate. At least one analyst argues that the so-called Bradley effect is unlikely to be a major factor in this election but we won't know for certain until election day.
I COULD BE WRONG ABOUT HOW I AM WRONG
I could even be wrong for some reason that I cannot currently imagine.
BUT, FINALLY, MY BEST GUESS
I'm not a gambler. But if I were, I would consider Obama to be a pretty safe bet. There are those that do bet on elections and they are showing strongly positive for Obama as well. If I were to make a call on the election now, I would bet that Obama wins easily in the electoral college carrying at Ohio and Florida both. But at the very worst, I expect Obama to carry Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado along with all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004.
Obama opens up a 24 point lead late in the third quarter.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN 24 POINTS?
National polls only show Obama leading by single digits. So why do I say that he has such a big lead over John McCain?
The answer is in the electoral college, the recent trends, and the time remaining until the election. All of the major states that McCain might have been able to win back to the republican side that went for John Kerry have strongly moved towards Barack Obama. Even Karl Rove shows Obama in the lead in the electoral college. Obama is showing leads in states like Virginia and North Carolina that no democratic presidential candidate has won in recent memory. Add to that Obama's growing lead in Ohio and Florida--both states the McCain absolutely has to win--and it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine any circumstance that would bring about a McCain victory.
THE DEBATE: WHAT DIDN'T HAPPEN
McCain needed a big play, something to change the momentum of the race and it didn't happen. All of the analysts agree on this point. With just four weeks until the election, the trends are now likely to continue to trend even more strongly towards Obama. Failing some drastic mistake by the Obama campaign or some miraculous accomplishment by the McCain team, this election is over.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
Since I have now made such a strong assertion that Obama is likely to win, I am going to consider various ways I could be mistaken.
THE CLEVELAND BROWS FACTOR
As I mentioned in my first post, I grew up watching the Cleveland Browns loose games even when they were well ahead going into the fourth quarter. This game--this election--could still be lost by Obama. But even the Cleveland Browns would have a difficult time loosing a game ahead by 24 points late in the third quarter if they had been playing as well as the Obama campaign has been executing.
OK, that is really a stretch of the football metaphor, but it is a point worth noting: the Obama campaign is a very disciplined one and has increasingly run an essentially error-free campaign recently. There is no good reason to assume that they are going to start making big mistakes now.
Organizations tend to mimic their founders and if one thing we have learned about Obama is that he is always calm and cool-headed. He has even been compared ( if unfavorably ) with an ice-cube. In stress, we are told, we become more like ourselves, and this suggests that the Obama campaign is likely to become even more disciplined and focused as election day approaches.
McCain, on the other hand, was a fighter-pilot and a gambler (literally--he likes high-stakes craps ). He seems to view leadership as requiring immediate, direct, hands-on action and if something isn't working right now, you need to try something else. With time running out, the McCain campaign is more likely to take big risks and make big mistakes. And, to stretch the football metaphor past the breaking point, the McCain/Stabler offense is just not executing and the Obama/Shula-zone defense isn't letting anything through.
THE I'M JUST PLAIN WRONG FACTOR
I could be wrong. I could be reading the debate results wrong ( even though I am going off the analysis of others on CNN and MSNBC and polls they have done). The voters, en masse, may have seen an entirely different debate than the one that I thought I saw.
Or I could be seeing trends that really aren't there, or wrong about their direction. All these seem to be possibilities but I judge the far, far more likely possibility is that the trends are what they seem to me to be.
THE POLLS COULD BE WRONG
Much of my analysis is based upon various polls. They could all be wrong. The polls were wrong in 2004 in predicting the election outcome. Why not now?
In 2004 there were conflicting polls and trends. This time almost all of the polls and all of the trends are moving in the same direction. With the exception of my pithy, incredibly clever football metaphors, everything I have written is essentially a condensed version of other analyses and simple extrapolations from electoral college maps.
THE RACE FACTOR
Some have argued that the polls may be wrong because of Obama's race--that many people are saying they will vote for Obama but actually will not because they are unwilling to admit to the pollsters (or perhaps even themselves) that they will not vote for a black candidate. At least one analyst argues that the so-called Bradley effect is unlikely to be a major factor in this election but we won't know for certain until election day.
I COULD BE WRONG ABOUT HOW I AM WRONG
I could even be wrong for some reason that I cannot currently imagine.
BUT, FINALLY, MY BEST GUESS
I'm not a gambler. But if I were, I would consider Obama to be a pretty safe bet. There are those that do bet on elections and they are showing strongly positive for Obama as well. If I were to make a call on the election now, I would bet that Obama wins easily in the electoral college carrying at Ohio and Florida both. But at the very worst, I expect Obama to carry Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado along with all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004.
Obama has Momentum: McCain on the defensive
FOOTBALL METAPHOR BEFORE THE DEBATE:
Obama has a 17-point lead early in the third quarter. His team has the momentum and the ball deep in McCain's territory. The democrat is poised to add another touchdown to his lead unless McCain can use his town-hall, goal-line defense to change the game around and get control of the ball.
McCain has been called for some dirty plays by the refs and the fans booed. He has home field advantage tonight but has to watch his aggressive style of play or he could easily be called for unsportsmanlike conduct which would all but guarantee another Obama score.
This deep in McCain territory, even a successful goal-line stand will likely leave Obama with at least a field-goal.
TRANSLATION FOR NON-FOOTBALL FANS:
As my previous post mentioned, all of the trends look good for Obama . Time is in his favor and McCain is in jeopardy of loosing even major states that George Bush carried in the last two elections. And recent trends seem likely to put the election almost completely out of reach unless something significant changes for McCain very soon. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico (all of which seems close to a certainty) then the rest of the election will be fought in McCain's territory, so to speak and McCain will be on defense for the rest of the election.
Unless McCain clearly wins tonight's debate, Obama will move further into the lead. If Obama is seen to essentially tie the debate with McCain, Obama will add the equivalent of a field-goal giving him a (football metaphorical) 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter. But if Obama wins tonight, he scores a touchdown and moves into a commanding 24-point lead. Of course, even with a 24 point lead, a team can make big mistakes and still loose the game.
McCain's best hope is to stop Obama's momentum and force a turnover ( AKA force Obama to make a major mistake in the debate ) which could shift the polls in a positive direction for McCain. But McCain is very far behind and time is running out.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008 1:45 PM Pacific Daylight Time
Obama has a 17-point lead early in the third quarter. His team has the momentum and the ball deep in McCain's territory. The democrat is poised to add another touchdown to his lead unless McCain can use his town-hall, goal-line defense to change the game around and get control of the ball.
McCain has been called for some dirty plays by the refs and the fans booed. He has home field advantage tonight but has to watch his aggressive style of play or he could easily be called for unsportsmanlike conduct which would all but guarantee another Obama score.
This deep in McCain territory, even a successful goal-line stand will likely leave Obama with at least a field-goal.
TRANSLATION FOR NON-FOOTBALL FANS:
As my previous post mentioned, all of the trends look good for Obama . Time is in his favor and McCain is in jeopardy of loosing even major states that George Bush carried in the last two elections. And recent trends seem likely to put the election almost completely out of reach unless something significant changes for McCain very soon. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico (all of which seems close to a certainty) then the rest of the election will be fought in McCain's territory, so to speak and McCain will be on defense for the rest of the election.
Unless McCain clearly wins tonight's debate, Obama will move further into the lead. If Obama is seen to essentially tie the debate with McCain, Obama will add the equivalent of a field-goal giving him a (football metaphorical) 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter. But if Obama wins tonight, he scores a touchdown and moves into a commanding 24-point lead. Of course, even with a 24 point lead, a team can make big mistakes and still loose the game.
McCain's best hope is to stop Obama's momentum and force a turnover ( AKA force Obama to make a major mistake in the debate ) which could shift the polls in a positive direction for McCain. But McCain is very far behind and time is running out.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008 1:45 PM Pacific Daylight Time
Obama leads by 17 heading into the third quarter
What is this? And who is this guy?
This is the inagural posting of a new blog to give a quick digest of the 2008 presidential election. Being a bit of a news junkie I regularly skim the various web sites to collect up a rough, comprehensive picture of the electorate and the likely winner come election day, but others may have more important things to do with their lives and that's where I come in.
There are excellent electoral map vote counters and sources of polls but no single source can be considered to be authoritative. And being a computer programmer by profession and philosopher by avocation, I have a healthy respect for both evidence and doubt. Finally, I grew up as a Cleveland sports fan and have decades of experience in watching football teams blow 21-point, fourth-quarter leads.
Tuesday, October 2008 11:50 AM
As numerous sources have reported, all of the recent trends are in Obama's favor. The upper midwest states ( Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan ) are all either strongly or comfortably trending towards Obama. Pennsylvania has moved towards Obama and New Mexico and Colorado now are both seen as trending towards the good Senator from Illinois.
Other trends are so positive for the democratic ticket that it is difficult for this skeptical, life-long Cleveland Browns fan to believe. Polls show Obama competitive in Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, none of which were carried by a democratic candidate in recent memory.
The map essentially comes down to this: Obama seems very likely to carry all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa and New Mexico. Those plus Colorado (where Obama is now leading ) would give Obama the election. This is amazingly without either Florida or Ohio. And Ohio has been trending fairly strongly towards Obama as of late, as has Florida.
In short, all of the challenges are on the GOP ticket to defend states that George Bush won in the previous two elections.
Football metaphor for the day:
Obama is ahead by 17 points and it's the beginning of the third quarter. Can John McCain's Ken Stabler big-play offense turn things around? Or will Barak Obama's Don Shula zone defense keep the GOP attack machine from scoring big?
Stay tuned.
This is the inagural posting of a new blog to give a quick digest of the 2008 presidential election. Being a bit of a news junkie I regularly skim the various web sites to collect up a rough, comprehensive picture of the electorate and the likely winner come election day, but others may have more important things to do with their lives and that's where I come in.
There are excellent electoral map vote counters and sources of polls but no single source can be considered to be authoritative. And being a computer programmer by profession and philosopher by avocation, I have a healthy respect for both evidence and doubt. Finally, I grew up as a Cleveland sports fan and have decades of experience in watching football teams blow 21-point, fourth-quarter leads.
Tuesday, October 2008 11:50 AM
As numerous sources have reported, all of the recent trends are in Obama's favor. The upper midwest states ( Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan ) are all either strongly or comfortably trending towards Obama. Pennsylvania has moved towards Obama and New Mexico and Colorado now are both seen as trending towards the good Senator from Illinois.
Other trends are so positive for the democratic ticket that it is difficult for this skeptical, life-long Cleveland Browns fan to believe. Polls show Obama competitive in Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, none of which were carried by a democratic candidate in recent memory.
The map essentially comes down to this: Obama seems very likely to carry all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa and New Mexico. Those plus Colorado (where Obama is now leading ) would give Obama the election. This is amazingly without either Florida or Ohio. And Ohio has been trending fairly strongly towards Obama as of late, as has Florida.
In short, all of the challenges are on the GOP ticket to defend states that George Bush won in the previous two elections.
Football metaphor for the day:
Obama is ahead by 17 points and it's the beginning of the third quarter. Can John McCain's Ken Stabler big-play offense turn things around? Or will Barak Obama's Don Shula zone defense keep the GOP attack machine from scoring big?
Stay tuned.
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