Don't Worry Be Happy

Football analogy for the night before the election:

Obama is leading by 28 points with less than a minute to go . McCain's only hope of victory is that everyone in the stands is blind drunk and has read the scoreboard wrong.

IF YOU ARE STILL WORRIED:

If you are an Obama fan and are still worried (and you know who you are) here is a very simple and compelling argument to calm your nerves:

The website Real Clear Politics shows 11 national polls with Obama leading McCain. NONE OF THESE POLLS SHOW A LEAD FOR JOHN McCAIN. 8 out of the 11 show Obama with 51% or more of the vote. 2 show Obama with 50% of the vote. Only one out of the 11 shows Obama at less than 50%. But even if you take that one poll--the one that has the worst numbers for Obama--and make a further worst-case assumption that McCain wins two out of every three remaining undecided voters, Obama will still end up with more than 50% of the vote.

Think about this for just a moment: under the most optimistic assumptions possible ( and unlikely ones at that ) Obama is still nearly certain of winning a majority of the popular vote.

Still worried? Then look at the electoral college. Obama is a lock to win all of the states Al Gore carried in 2000 comprising 264 electoral votes. To win Obama needs only to carry Virginia or Colorado, both states he has been leading in virtually every poll for over a month. That is, Obama wins even without Florida and even without Ohio. ( You can verify this scenario here. )

Still not convinced? Karl Rove has come out projecting a large win for Obama--he projects Obama will win Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida and Ohio. It hardly needs mentioning that Karl Rove is not a Obama supporter.

COULD ALL OF THE POLLS BE WRONG?

McCain has two possible chances to win:

1. All of the polls are wrong, and all the same way
2. We are all asleep and dreaming the same thing

Of the two possibilities, I have to say that #1 is a bit more likely. But that isn't saying much. The statistical sampling that underlies modern polling is still a bit of an art, but it is extremely unlikely that all of the polls are wrong and essentially all the same way over such a long period of time. Collectively, I would bet that they are right.

DID YOU SAY, BET?

There are people who put their money on the line in predicting the election. Because they stand to win money only if they are right, they have a strong motivation against wishful thinking of any kind. And what do they predict? A sweeping Obama victory.

IT's NOT OVER 'TILL IT's OVER

That's right. And no matter what, this election will make history. Until it is, get plenty of rest, take vitamin C, and drink lots of liquids. That's good advice for any occasion.